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The fight for the bronze medal: The match between Bakhshiyev and Berdyev's teams today and tomorrow - ANALYSIS
Today, one match will be held in the Misli Premier League.
Idman.biz reports that although the XXXI round is remarkable with the Azerbaijan derby between "Qarabag" and "Neftchi", the central match of the week will be held today.
"Araz-Nakhchivan", which is in the 3rd place, will host "Turan Tovuz", which is 4 points ahead. The meeting at "Liv Bona Dea Arena" is also of great importance in terms of the bronze award that gives a ticket to the Conference League. Therefore, the match is considered the "Bronze Battle".
Unreachable silver, distant followers
In theory, both "Araz-Nakhchivan" and "Turan Tovuz" still have a chance for 2nd place. But it is obvious that "Zira", which is considered the closest to silver, is in good shape, and its followers do not play so consistently. Therefore, it is not realistic for Nakhchivan to eliminate the 6-point difference and Tovuz to eliminate the 11-point difference. Silver can be considered unattainable for both teams. The fact that "Sabah" in the 5th place is 16 points behind the 3rd place is also noteworthy. This shows that there will be no 3rd party in the bronze battle.
Golden points for bronze
Although "Araz-Nakhchivan" and "Turan Tovuz" are fighting for bronze, the points in the personal game are worth gold. It is even said that victory in such duels is worth 6 points instead of 3. Of course, both teams understand this. For Elmar Bakhshiyev's students, victory could mean bronze and a ticket to Europe. If the Nakhchivan representative, which is now 5 points ahead, increases its advantage to 8 points, it will not lose it in the last five rounds. A draw is not a bad result for the home team. Maintaining a five-point advantage will keep the team well ahead in the bronze battle. Tovuz club must win absolutely without its penalized head coach Kurban Berdyev. Reducing the difference to 2 points will not be enough for "Turan Tovuz" either. It will only intensify the fight and there will be an absentee fight in the last 5 rounds.
Tough finish
If "Araz-Nakhchivan" gets what it wants in this round, it can formalize the bronze in the next two games. The opponents will also be suitable for this. Outsider "Sabail", who will fight to the end for salvation, and "Sabah", who has no claims in the championship, are due to Bakhshiyev's team's strength. Instead, the finish will be very difficult. Duels against "Qarabag" and "Zira", which will secure gold and silver by that time, as well as the trip to Shamakhi, seem more difficult than the first two matches.
"Araz-Nakhchivan"'s last 5 games:
XXXII round. "Sabail" (a)
XXXIII round. "Sabah" (h)
XXXIV round. "Qarabag" (a)
XXXV round. "Shamakhi" (a)
XXXVI round. "Zira" (h)
Home advantage
If "Turan Tovuz" can reduce the difference with 3rd place, it can take advantage of a more favorable finish. Although Berdyev is penalized, he has the experience to carry his team to bronze from the stands. The Western club will play three of its last 5 matches at home. The guests are also not so terrible - "Shamakhi", "Neftchi" and "Kapaz". Only the away match with "Zira" will be difficult. It is also possible for the Tovuz representative to get the desired result in Sumgayit.
"Turan Tovuz"'s last 5 games:
XXXII round. "Shamakhi" (h)
XXXIII round. "Zira" (a)
XXXIV round. "Neftchi" (h)
XXXV round. "Sumgayit" (a)
XXXVI round. "Kapaz" (h)
There is also Europe without bronze
The schedule of the last games is not the only advantage of "Turan Tovuz". If the Westerners have focused all their attention on the Premier League, "Araz-Nakhchivan" is fighting on not one, but two fronts. Fighting in both the championship and the cup to get to Europe means fatigue at the end of the season. The team that wins bronze at the end of the season will not only win the first award in its history, but will also be promoted to the Conference League. But it is also possible to do this by staying outside the "top three". If "Araz-Nakhchivan" itself defeats "Qarabag" first, and then the winner of the "Sabah" - "Neftchi" pair in the final, it will go to the European League as the owner of the cup. This will take "Turan Tovuz" to the Conference League, regardless of whether it takes 3rd or 4th place. "Qarabag" winning the cup will also take both 3rd and 4th place to Europe. But in order not to wait for the final, not to depend on others, it is necessary to seize the bronze. The bronze battle is heating up with today's absentee fight.
Note that the match between "Araz-Nakhchivan" and "Turan Tovuz" will start at 19:00.
Vugar Khayrullayev
Idman.biz